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Why opinion poll predictions are drifting away from reality

(For representation) Every election, opinion polls rule the media coverage. Armed with statistics, pollsters predict winners and losers. But how accurate are these opinion polls? Not really, finds a recent study by Neelkanth Mishra and Pratik Singh of Credit Suisse. The study, accessed by India Today, compares predictions with actual results for major alliances to find that opinion polls are moving away from reality. Errors in predicting Lok Sabha election results are on the rise since 1998-99, it says. RISE IN ERRORS Difference between actual election outcomes and the mean prediction is known as error. The nearer the error […]

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